Wheat farmers in Pakistan are increasingly shifting towards more profitable crops like mustard and pulses as government support prices have been removed and domestic wheat prices remain low, impacting this season’s sowing patterns.
According to a report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), published on Saturday, the area under wheat cultivation has been shrinking since the government eliminated the minimum support price in May 2024.
The FAO noted that wheat production in 2025 will largely depend on the rainy season’s performance until April.
Despite below-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures from October 2024 to early February 2025, wheat crops in major farming areas have maintained average to above-average conditions due to ample irrigation.
However, dry weather has adversely affected crop emergence and early development in rain-fed regions, known locally as barani, which account for around 20 per cent of wheat planting. Some northern irrigated areas also faced challenges due to insufficient irrigation water.
The FAO’s Agriculture Stress Index (ASI), as of early February, reported drought conditions in some wheat-growing regions, indicating potentially lower yields.
The 2024 cropping season, which concluded in December, saw record-breaking cereal production, with a total output of 56.6 million tonnes.
Wheat production alone reached an all-time high of 31.4 million tonnes, thanks to widespread sowing and improved yields, bolstered by adequate irrigation and high-yield seed varieties. Paddy production also hit a record 15.2 million tonnes, driven by higher prices at the time of planting. Maize output remained steady at 9.5 million tonnes.
Pakistan’s wheat import needs for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to be minimal, a stark contrast to the significant wheat imports seen between 2020 and 2024 due to tight domestic supplies, poor harvests from 2018 to 2020, and flood-related stock losses in 2022.
While rice exports, the country’s main cereal export, are projected to reach 5.5 million tonnes in 2025, this marks a decline from the record 6.5 million tonnes exported in 2024, as increased global competition impacts the market. Maize exports are forecast to remain steady at 500,000 tonnes in the 2024-25 period.
The record wheat harvest of 2024 led to a significant drop in domestic wheat flour prices between March and June 2024, as the market was flooded with supply. The Punjab government’s decision not to procure wheat from the 2024 harvest further boosted market supply, driving prices down even further.
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