Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented Pakistan’s Economic Survey for FY2024–25.
He said the economy is stabilising. He expects FY2025–26 to be a turnaround year.
The government reduced the fiscal deficit to 2.6% of GDP. Last year it was 3.7%.
Primary surplus rose to 3.0%, from 1.5% the previous year. Tax revenues reached Rs9.3 trillion in July–April FY25, up 26.3%.
Aurangzeb said the surplus came from spending cuts and revenue growth. Debt servicing costs fell by half. Savings were close to Rs1 trillion.
Policy rates are expected to fall further. The minister said macroeconomic stability is in place. He warned against shifting to consumption-led growth.
The Planning Ministry raised GDP growth estimates from 2.7% to 4.2%. Inflation remains a challenge, but improvement is expected.
Power companies are recovering losses. Circular debt reduction is planned. Pakistan recorded a $1.9 billion external surplus in July–April FY25.
According to the Finance Minister, IT exports grew. Remittances may reach $37–38 billion by year-end. Reserves stand at $16.64 billion. $11.5 billion is with the State Bank.
Fitch upgraded Pakistan’s rating from CCC+ to B–.
Tax filers doubled. Rs2.4 trillion in T-bills were retired. Rs610 billion was raised via a two-year zero-coupon bond.
Domestic debt maturity improved from 2.9 to 3.5 years. The KSE-100 index rose by 78,000 points. It posted a 50% return.
Banks are urged to support fiscal discipline. Long-term bonds will be issued. Agriculture grew 0.56%. Rice exports improved.
Storage and financing issues remain. Construction grew 6.6%. Services rose 2.9%. Large-scale manufacturing stabilised.
Power capacity reached 46,605 MW. Half goes to households. Petroleum demand rose 7%. Most of it came from transport.
Pakistan launched the $77 million Recharge Pakistan Project. A Climate Budget Tagging system was created.
A Carbon Market Policy will launch at COP29. Pakistan received $1.4 billion from the IMF under the RSF.
Progress was made under the EFF as well. The Benazir Income Support Programme gave out Rs593 billion.
Aurangzeb said reforms must continue. Spending leaks must stop first. Pakistan issued its first green sukuk worth Rs30 billion.
GDP reached Rs114,692 billion (US$411 billion). Per capita income rose to $1,824. Inflation slowed.
Remittances and lower KIBOR rates signal macro stability. Aurangzeb said the government’s role is to support freelancers. He pushed for automation in data collection.
The auto sector grew 40%. Textiles grew 2%. Machinery imports rose. Pakistan’s population grows 2.5% each year. Aurangzeb warned it could reach 300 to 400 million.
The next NFC meeting will discuss population-linked funding.
The development budget is Rs4.2 trillion. Strategic projects will be federal. Social projects will go to the provinces. A $20 million partnership framework was signed.
One-third of that is for climate resilience. Aurangzeb said financing is not the issue. Execution is key.
He ended by saying structural reforms will continue. The Finance Minister stated that “macroeconomic stability is a step and sustainable growth is the goal.”
